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12/31/2008 - Rosemont, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish invade Allstate Arena tonight, as they tussle with the DePaul Blue Demons in the Big East opener for both teams.
The Irish return from their lengthy break and are set to compete for a Big East title after placing second at 14-4 last season. ND heads into league play on a winning note, as it trounced Savannah State, 81-49, in its last outing on December 22nd. It was the third consecutive victory for the Irish, who improved to 9-2 on the year.
As for DePaul, it was also successful in its final non-conference tuneup, capturing a 90-67 victory over Alcorn State on Sunday. The triumph was the fourth in the past five outings for the Demons, as they improved to 8-5 overall and 6-1 on their home floor. The team now turns its focus to the Big East, where finished just 6-12 a season ago.
Tonight's game marks the 99th all-time meeting between ND and DePaul, with the Irish holding a 54-44 edge in the series. ND has also won seven of the past nine meetings with DePaul, including both last season.
The Irish are one of the premier scoring teams around and they are currently averaging a healthy 83.2 ppg behind 46.5 percent shooting from the field and an impressive 42.0 percent from three-point range. Luke Harangody is the focal point of this attack and the preseason All-American is one of the top big men in the nation, averaging a double-double with 22.7 ppg and 12.0 rpg. Kyle McAlarney gives ND another solid scoring option at 17.2 ppg, only he does his work from the perimeter, knocking down 47.6 percent from long distance. Ryan Ayers chips in with 12.9 ppg, and Tory Jackson adds 11.2 ppg and a team-high 5.8 apg to the rotation. In the team's last outing, Harangody recorded a double-double with 23 points and 13 rebounds to lead ND in a romp of Savannah State. Jackson and Ayers each chipped in with 10 points for the Irish, who made 23-of-28 free throws and dominated the boards 44-21.
The Blue Demons connected on 42.1 percent of their attempts from the floor and 19-of-27 at the foul line, as they cruised past Alcorn State on Sunday. The team also won the battle on the boards, 56-32, and that included a 25-10 advantage on the offensive glass. Dar Tucker led the charge with 25 points and three steals, while Mac Koshwal had a double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds. On the year, Tucker leads DePaul in scoring with 19.8 ppg and he is also collecting 5.9 rpg. Koshwal averages a double-double with 13.8 ppg and a team-best 11.3 rpg for the Demons, while Will Walker chips in with 10.7 ppg. As a team, DePaul is turning in 69.0 ppg despite shooting a sub par 27.2 percent from beyond the arc.
<< Duke puts extended win streak on the line in Durham
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils get a three-
game homestand started today, as they welcome the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
to Cameron Indoor Stadium for a non-conference affair.
The Blue Devils, who have won 65
<< Buckeyes begin Big Ten play at home against Hawkeyes
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Ten play begins for the 24th-ranked Ohio
State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight, as they duel at Value City Arena
in Columbus.
The Buckeyes enter the tilt looking to rebound from their first loss of
<< Bulldogs battle Utes in Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs will
try to get back on track tonight, as they close out 2008 with a non-conference
bout against the Utah Runnin' Utes at the Huntsman Center.
The Bulldogs have been idle
<< Toothless Tigers take on ferocious Bears
Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 19th-ranked Baylor Bears welcome the lowly
Jackson State Tigers to Waco for a non-conference clash.
Jackson State is a huge underdog heading into this contest, as the club has
lost its last five outings and ow
Pitt puts perfect mark on line in Big East opener against Rutgers >>
Piscataway, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the nation's few remaining undefeated
teams will take the court in Piscataway, New Jersey today, as the third-ranked
Pittsburgh Panthers open Big East Conference play against the Rutgers Scarlet
Knights.
Xavier hopes to stop slide in bout with Robert Morris >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Xavier Musketeers are
heavily favored in this evening's clash with the Robert Morris Colonials.
Robert Morris is a member of the Northeast Conference and owns a 6-6 overall
record, which incl
No. 23 Michigan hosts Wisconsin in Big Ten lidlifter >>
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor is the site of
today's Big Ten battle between the Wisconsin Badgers and the 23rd-ranked
Michigan Wolverines, who have been much better than many expected.
Wisconsin fell to 9-3 over
Cardinals collide with Rebels in Louisville >>
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Louisville Cardinals will
try to close out 2008 on a high note this evening, as they entertain the UNLV
Rebels in non-conference play at Freedom Hall.
The Cardinals kicked off a three-game ho
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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