Inter remains the team to beat in Serie A

Soccer Betting Lines

08/27/2010 - Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan has dominated Serie A over the past four seasons, and after a summer transfer period that has been extremely uneventful, the Nerazzurri will enter the season as favorites to retain their title.

Inter returns almost the same team that captured the treble last season, minus talented but troubled striker Mario Balotelli, while the biggest loss could be felt on the bench, as former Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez replaces the departed Jose Mourinho, who left for Real Madrid.

Benitez failed to capture the UEFA Super Cup on Friday in a 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid, meaning that Inter's Serie A campaign will not get underway until Monday, when the club travels to Bologna.

Roma has been the chief opposition to Inter over the past few years, finishing as runners-up in both the league and Coppa Italia last season. But outside of adding Brazilian striker Adriano over the summer, the club failed to make any other significant additions, which leaves them a little short on talent when compared to Inter.

Claudio Ranieri's side opens its season at home against promoted club Cesena, while AC Milan will host Lecce.

Milan also failed to make any big moves over the summer, but they are hopeful that they can reach a deal with Barcelona for striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic before the close of the transfer window next week.

The former Inter sniper would be a welcome addition to a Milan attack that sorely needs some freshening up.

Juventus endured a horrible campaign last season, finishing seventh in Serie A. The club is now hoping a number of new signings, most notably Italy international Fabio Quagliarella, can help to reverse its fortunes, and the Old Lady will begin its season on the road at Bari.

Genoa visits Udinese on Saturday with both teams entertaining hopes of a spot in Europe, while Napoli made one of the biggest moves of the summer with the capture of Uruguay striker Edinson Cavani from Palermo.

Napoli finished last season in sixth place and the team will be looking to push into the top four this season, which starts with an away match at Fiorentina.

The Viola ended last season in a disappointing 11th place, and they will also be without one of their top players, Stevan Jovetic, for the first half of the season after he ruptured his cruciate ligament in early August.

In other action on the opening weekend of Serie A, Catania visits Chievo, Palermo hosts Cagliari, Brescia hits the road to meet Parma and Sampdoria tangles with Lazio.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.