Bayern Munich switches focus to Leverkusen

Soccer Betting Lines

04/08/2010 - Leverkusen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich lost to Manchester United in the Champions League on Wednesday, but former legend Franz Beckenbauer said it was "one of the nicest defeats in the history of Bayern."

Bayern lost to United 3-2 in the second leg of their Champions League match at Old Trafford, but scored the final two goals to level the series on aggregate 4-4 and advanced on away goals.

The German club is in the Champions League semifinals for the first time since 2001, sits atop the Bundesliga with five matches remaining and advanced to the Pokal Cup final, but "we've won nothing yet," captain Mark van Bommel said.

Bayern visits Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday for the third game of a crucial run on the road. Bayern won at Schalke last weekend, 2-1, to snap a two-game skid, then earned the result it needed in England.

A win at BayArena this weekend would send Leverkusen nine points off the pace, and leave Bayern ahead of Schalke regardless of its result against Hannover.

"All we're thinking about now is Leverkusen, we have to focus completely on them. It'll be an even more difficult game than the visit to Schalke, and we can't afford any more slip-ups in the league," Van Bommel said.

Bayern dropped back-to-back Bundesliga games after leading, losing 2-1 to both Eintracht and Stuttgart, to allow Schalke to move into the top spot before the match last week in Gelsenkirchen.

Franck Ribery and Thomas Muller scored just one minute apart midway through the first half, and Bayern held on after Hamit Altintop was sent off late in the opening half as the Munich side regained the league lead.

"It's our own fault that we're only a point clear at the top, and not a couple more. We want to win the league, which means we have to win in Leverkusen to keep Schalke behind us," said Van Bommel, who will miss the first leg of the Champions League semifinals against Lyon through suspension.

Bayern has featured a balanced offense, with Arjen Robben - who scored a great volley for the series-winning goal against United - and Mario Gomez both on 10 goals. Muller and Olic each have eight, while Ribery has four in five starts.

Leverkusen features one of the top scorers in the league in Stefan Kiessling, who is tied with Schalke's Kevin Kuranyi for second place with 18 goals. Eren Derdiyok is second on the club with 12 goals.

Leverkusen, which enters the week six points back of Bayern, opened the season on a 24-game unbeaten streak but has slipped from the top spot since losing to Nurnberg in early March.

Bayer has dropped four of its last five and now holds just a one-point lead on Borussia Dortmund for third place and the last Champions League berth.

Jupp Heynckes, who led Bayern over the final five games of last season, needs to get his new club back on track over the final five weeks of this season to secure a spot in Europe's top club event.

On Friday, Monchengladbach hosts Eintracht to open the weekend's matches. Also Saturday, Hannover hosts Schalke, Hoffenheim hosts Koln, Mainz hosts Borussia Dortmund, Hertha Berlin hosts Stuttgart, and Werder Bremen hosts Freiburg. On Sunday, Bochum hosts Hamburg and Nurnberg hosts Wolfsburg.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.